The cautious view of events in Iraq

David Ignatius:

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-- First, it's clear that al-Qaeda in Iraq is losing, even if we aren't exactly "winning." A senior State Department official in Baghdad said this week that "al-Qaeda is in disarray and even in retreat." Its Saddam-like tactics of intimidation have backfired badly and triggered a revolt among Sunni tribal leaders. This "Awakening" is spreading across Sunni areas of Iraq -- drawing in former Baathists as well as the tribal sheiks.

Even Osama bin Laden understands that al-Qaeda has stumbled badly in Iraq. In an Oct. 22 audiotape that attracted too little notice at the time, bin Laden scolded his followers for tactics that alienated Iraqis.
"Mistakes have been made during holy wars," he said. "Some of you have been lax in one duty, which is to unite your ranks."

Bin Laden's self-criticism was "possibly the most important message" in al-Qaeda's history, wrote Abdel Bari Atwan, an Arab journalist who has interviewed bin Laden and written an insightful biography. "It is the first time that bin Laden recognizes the error committed by the members of his organization and in particular the excesses committed in Iraq."

-- Second, the recent security gains reflect the fact that Iran is standing down, for the moment. The Iranian-backed Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr has sharply curtailed its operations. The shelling of the Green Zone from Iranian-backed militias in Sadr City has stopped. The flow from Iran of deadly roadside bombs appears to have slowed or stopped. And to make it official, the Iranians announced Tuesday that they will resume security discussions in Baghdad with U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

I suspect the Iranians' new policy of accommodation is a tactical shift. They still want to exert leverage over a future Iraq, but they have concluded that the best way to do so is to work with U.S. forces -- and speed our eventual exit -- rather than continue a policy of confrontation. A genuine U.S.-Iranian understanding about stabilizing Iraq would be a very important development. But we should see it for what it is: The Iranians will contain their proxy forces in Iraq because it's in their interest to do so.

As a caution against over-enthusiasm about the surge, it's useful to consider what happens in a "draw play" in football. Defensive linemen go charging toward the quarterback, congratulating themselves on evading the blockers, when suddenly the opposing running back races past, and they realize -- Oops! We've been suckered. A Syrian analyst draws a similar picture of what's happening now in Iraq. He notes that former insurgents are regrouping and forming alliances among Sunni and Shiite militias that oppose the U.S. "This will be known as the era of deception," warns my Syrian friend.

Al-Qaeda's mistakes and Iran's tactical retreat don't diminish the importance of what Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. forces are accomplishing. But the hard work of building a stable Iraqi state is still ahead. The Bush administration needs to seize this moment and speed the transition to Iraqi control. If our troop levels in Iraq are "conditions based," and conditions really are improving, then a whole lot more soldiers should be back home next Thanksgiving.

Ignatius has missed some important events that have made the current success possible. The Iraqis are not bystanders this time. They have taken ownership of this defeat of al Qaeda and the insurgents. Ignatius is still wasting too much time and energy looking at the Iraqi government and not what is happening on the grass roots level where, we have already turned over much of the security operations to Iraqi troops and "concerned citizens."

By using the Iraqis we have reached critical mass with a force to space ratio that makes enemy movement difficult or impossible. The Iraqis have been engaged in providing intelligence of where enemy forces are hiding themselves and their weapons. The brilliance of the surge strategy was to bring the troops out and to protect the people. This is the exact opposite of what Democrats who wanted to remain engaged in Iraq wanted to do. The other Democrats just wanted to retreat in a rout. They have been dead wrong about our policy since al Qaeda decided to make it the central front in its war against us and if they had been in charge we would have lost this war. Many of them are still trying to achieve that lost.