The GOP comeback
Barnes is letting the Democrats off too easy for their attempt to force a retreat on Iraq before even listening to the general they sent over there to implement a new strategy. This wasn't just poor judgment it was spectacularly wrong and it would be a huge mistake not to hold their feet to the fire on the issue.It's not particularly visible at the moment, but there is a road to political recovery for Republicans. Chances are they won't get far enough down it to recapture the House or Senate or even hold the White House in 2008. But they might.
Three things have to happen for Republicans to recover--in effect, a political hat trick. Events must work in their favor, notably in Iraq. Democrats must screw up badly. And Republicans must change their ways, in a compelling fashion. This last requirement may be the toughest.
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But even if the "surge" is as successful as it appears it might be, there's a problem. While public support has increased recently, the war still faces deep-seated opposition. There's a widespread view that its cost in lives, money and national prestige has been too high. This won't change overnight. Public opinion isn't quite that fickle.
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Grass-roots reconciliation is already spreading at a pace not far behind military gains. And this, after all, is the formula on which the surge was based--that success in fighting al Qaeda, Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias would be accompanied by, or lead to, political progress. Should the situation continue to improve, American attitudes about the war, President Bush and Republicans, would surely improve, marginally at least and perhaps a bit more.
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A spectacular Democratic blunder? Republicans shouldn't count on it. Democrats have downplayed cultural issues like abortion and gun control that alienated voters in the past. They championed organized labor's agenda, but the most egregious items (ending secret ballot certification elections and unionizing Transportation Security Administration employees) failed to pass and are now forgotten. Democrats tried mightily to force a troop drawdown in Iraq and failed there, too. This may revive, over the long term, their reputation for weakness on national security. For now, they're OK.
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The GOP shouldn't just be glad the Democrats came to their senses, because when it comes to the war, the Democrats don't have any core belief. At best they are poll driven. This is all that saves them from complete disgrace. In their never ending search for the dark cloud in Iraq, the Democrats are ignoring the grass roots reconciliation that is taking place and beating up on Maliki like the political cripple that he is. They are forgetting the reasons for the reconciliation packages they were forcing on the Iraqi government. It was to encourage the exact reconciliation that is taking place without it.
Right now the Republican front runner is leading the Democrat front runner by seven points in the polls and this is at a time when Barnes and others are conceding that Democrats have an advantage. The fact is they do not, and the kook left in the Democrat party has forced their contenders into adopting positions on Iraq that are not just wrong but disgracefully wrong and cowardly. In contrast, the Republican candidates have demonstrated courage on the issue and have framed the debate on the issue in a way that puts the Democrats on the defensive both politically and militarily.
Where the Republicans need the most work right now is in recruiting candidates for Congress who can carry the message on the mess Democrats would make of national security and the ineptitude of the Democrat leadership in Congress. Harry Reid should be a national embarrassment for Democrats, and with people like Murtha in the leadership in the House the Republicans have a target rich environment if they are willing to take them on.
Update: Don Surber nails the opponents of the surge who now embrace it.
Good post, but I have to agree with Fred Barnes that the Dems do have an advantage now, simply because the Republicans have a track record over the last five years, and it is this track record that Dems will use to show how poorly (in their view) the country has been run.
ReplyDeleteI don't think many Americans are going to change their mind about the war in Iraq. If they are against it now, they will be against it come next November; and vice versa.
If the economy remains strong, and the situation in Iraq does not get any worse, then the Republicans have a chance. And these two factors are largely out of GWB's or Republican politican's hands.