Behind the surge in optimism

Michael Yon:

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... I have had the feeling for more than a month that top U.S. leadership in Iraq has been being cautious not to show too much optimism at this time. However, I have seen changes with my own eyes in Nineveh, Anbar, and Diyala that are more fundamental than just winning battles. In Nineveh, the enemies of a united Iraq are still strong and vibrant, but the Iraqi army and police in Nineveh clearly are improving faster than the enemy is improving. In other words, the Iraqi Security Forces are winning that particular race. Out in Anbar, the shift actually began to occur last year while Special Forces and other less-than-visible operators, along with conventional forces such as the Marines, began harnessing the mood-shift of the tribes. Whereas in Nineveh the fight has been more like a race and test of endurance, in Anbar the outcome was more like an avalanche. Parts of Diyala, such as Baqubah, witnessed avalanche-like positive changes beginning on June 19 with Operation Arrowhead Ripper. I witnessed the operation and was given full access. However, other areas in Diyala remain serious problems. I have seen firsthand many sectarian issues. There remains civil war in parts of Diyala (largely thanks to AQI). Down in Basra, a completely different problem-set faces the British who themselves are facing tough choices.

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I will have to think about his use of the double passive voice to describe the attitude of US commanders. I think the commanders are concerned about losing credibility if the enemy attempts a Tet like offensive which they cannot win on the ground but hope to win in the media battle space. The commanders are still concerned about enemy capabilities, but the surge appears to have them on their heels at the moment which makes it difficult for them to organize attacks. This Yon quote comes from a NRO symposium responding to the NY Times Op-Ed suggesting that we can still win in Iraq.