Al Qaeda's response to losses in Anbar

W. Thomas Smith is with Marine units near al Qaim and notes:

Last night, went out on a combat foot patrol through the town of Karabilah with Alpha Company Raiders of the 1^st Battalion, 4^th Marines. We went out in two squads, operating independently until just after midnight when we linked up and moved back into the BP. Throughout the night we stopped and searched a few vehicles, collected intelligence, and gathered some atmospherics (mood of the people, feelings about the U.S. Marine presence, etc.). We learned through a Jordanian interpreter – the Marines call them “terps” – that al Qaeda operatives are threatening the lives of some locals. And al Qaeda in Iraq is definitely here: During previous nights, Alpha Marines captured 10 bad guys, weapons, and at least one primed and aimed rocket. I’ll be discussing more about the rocket after getting back to Al Qaim and going over a few details with Lt. Col. Bohm, commander of the battalion task force. AQI is also targeting infrastructure. They recently blew three bridges in the region among other things.

AQI is trying to move back into the Al Qaim region which the Marines have so effectively killed or beaten out. According to intelligence, AQI is planning something “big” here in the coming days. Bohm is trying to disrupt that effort by keeping the tempo hot against them. The terrorists are operating in isolated groups out in the open flats just beyond Karabilah (some are believed to be in the city) and other tiny impoverished towns and villages here on the Syrian border. Foreign fighters are also crossing the border along with the nearly impossible to control smuggling trade of cigarettes, goats, and gasoline.

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It is the nature of warfare that the sides respond to the successes of the other. What the patrols are doing is trying to get inside al Qaeda's decision loop on its latest plan. Qaim is near the border with Syria in western Anbar province. The destruction of al Qaeda's operations in Anbar has presented a dilemma for its forces since it no longer has secure rat lines into the country. It is probably that the new operation will be aimed at trying to reopen those rat lines.