Aimless in Ames

Tom Bevan:

Mitt Romney did what he needed to do yesterday, which was to come away from Ames with a decent-sized win. On Friday, I suggested a 10-point margin of victory was the minimum bar Romney needed to meet expectations, and he cleared that hurdle, winning by 13.4%.

There are caveats to Romney's win, of course: he threw millions of dollars at the event and competed against a weakened field that did not include Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, or John McCain. Still, at the end of the day Mitt Romney entered Ames with the most to lose - always a dangerous spot for politician to be in - and he exits the event having not lost a thing. Romney's win yesterday solidifies his standing as the front runner in Iowa heading into the final five and half month stretch.

The big surprise, of course, is Mike Huckabee. Yesterday was a do-or-die test for the former Arkansas Governor. He passed with flying colors, besting the better funded and better organized Sam Brownback for second place. Throughout the campaign thus far, the cash-strapped Huckabee has consistently outperformed in the debates and on the stump but hasn't seen the requisite gain in the polls most people expected. He now has a window of opportunity to leverage his strong finish in Ames and move his campaign from a shoe-string operation into a more formidable organization with the capability of mounting a serious run at the caucuses in January.

The big question mark coming out of Ames is Sam Brownback. He says yesterday's third place finish won him a ticket to the caucuses, but coming in behind Huckabee after breaking the bank at the straw poll was clearly a disappointment. Will Brownback continue? The answer to that question could have a significant impact on the final outcome in Iowa.

Obviously, the big loser is Tommy Thompson, whose sixth place finish should put the final nail in the coffin of his presidential ambitions this year. Despite his distinguished record as Wisconsin's chief executive and his reputation as an excellent retail politician, Thompson ran a lackluster campaign in which he often came off - at least on the national scene - as a bit of a buffoon. The other casualty of Ames is Congressman Duncan Hunter, who really has no reason or justification to continue after winning just 174 votes (1.2%) yesterday.

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Romney proved that if you throw enough money at it you can get a few votes at a meaningless caucus. Brownback has yet to look presidential in this contest and he proved that even throwing money at a meaningless caucus is not enough for some candidates. Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter just have not been able to excite many people beyond their close circle of friends and family. They are good men, but they have not shown the charisma needed to win this election. Huckabe continues to exceed expectations and leverage more bang for the buck than the other contenders. He will probably stay in the race and may keep himself in the hunt for the VP slot on the GOP ticket. He seems to be good at retail politics, but when the race moves to the big states where money is needed he will be in trouble.

Byron York has more on the Ames fair and the surprising performance of Tom Tancredo who was able to play on the anger of many toward the rules of engagement in the war and the army of lawyers who are pushing them.

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post notes the number of voters was down significantly from 1999 when Bush won. He attributes this to the absence of Giuliani, Fred Thompson and McCain.

John Podhoretz is unimpressed. "What they (the political media) should be writing about is that this event is to the Republican presidential nomination as a clown car is to a Formula One racer."