Al Qaeda loses its national headquarters in Iraq

Jack Kelly:

CNN's Michael Ware said in a broadcast Jan. 30 that Ramadi is "the true al Qaida national headquarters." If that were true, al Qaida is in bigger trouble in Iraq than most of us realize.

Radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt devoted his show last Wednesday to the (overwhelmingly negative) opinions of Iraq war veterans on the demands of Democrats that U.S. troops be pulled out. One call was from "Bruce in Upland," whose son is a soldier currently serving in Iraq.

"I will speak for my son who right now is bored out of his mind in Ramadi, because he hasn't heard a shot fired in combat now in about six or seven weeks," Bruce said.

There were about 22 enemy incidents per week in Ramadi in April, said Marine Major Jeff Pool. That's declined to "about two per week." (An enemy incident is any type of direct or indirect fire, from a sniper to a mortar or an IED attack.) Throughout Anbar province, the number of "incidents" has dropped from about 400 last December to 155 last week, said Maj. Pool, the public affairs chief for U.S. forces in western Iraq.

"Though these numbers are a substantial drop, I believe them to be artificially high," Maj. Pool said. The increased operational tempo resulting from the troop surge has increased exposure to the enemy as it has increased the number of al Qaida operatives killed or captured, he said.

"Anbar is returning to a state of normalcy, so I consider the soldier in Ramadi being bored a true measure of progress," he said.

...

In October of 2006, al Qaida declared Baquba to be the capital of the Islamic State in Iraq, and claimed to control both Anbar province (of which Ramadi is the capital), and Diyala province, of which Baquba is the capital).

So how are things faring for al Qaida in its new capital? About as poorly as in Ramadi, says Michael Yon, a former Green Beret turned freelance journalist who is embedded with U.S. forces.

"It's really slowed down here in Baquba," Mr. Yon told Mr. Hewitt in a telephone interview Thursday. "I was just in the TOC (tactical operations center) about 15 minutes before I came on the show, and they were like the Maytag repairmen here."

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Al Qaeda is losing because it has alienated the Iraqi people both Sunni and Shia. Right now their best allies are the Democrats in Congress who are working hard to hand them an undeserved victory in Iraq. All they can do is occasional trip the media's violence metric to show they are still alive, but they have lost more and more of the support of the Iraqis. They have not lost their desire to dominate them though. Their allies in the Democrat party may yet bail them out.

The Strata-Sphere also has more on al Qaeda's alienation of Muslims and how it has driven them into partnership with the US.