Mexico not impressed by al Qaeda oil threat

Houston Chronicle:

An Internet message by an al-Qaida-affiliated group calling for terrorist attacks on U.S. oil suppliers — particularly Mexico, Canada and Venezuela — set off alarm bells here Wednesday as experts debated how seriously to take the threat.

Mexico ranks as the United States' second-largest oil supplier, behind Canada, while Venezuela is the fourth-largest. Mexico and Venezuela provide the largest tonnage of foreign oil to Houston and Texas Gulf Coast refineries.

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Gladis Boladeras, a spokeswoman for Mexican President Felipe Calderon, said the government was "evaluating the information to determine whether it poses a serious threat."

In Washington, Homeland Security Department spokesman Kirk Whitworth dismissed the threat.

"We have looked into this," he said, "and it appears that the threat is only aspirational. We know of no specific, credible threat to the oil sector in Mexico."

While some analysts outside of government said the threat must be taken seriously, others scoffed at it.

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The Mexican army recently stepped up patrols around the country's onshore oil installations such as the Dos Bocas export facility in Tabasco. But Mexico's roughly 100 platforms in the Gulf of Mexico remain open to potential terrorist acts, analysts said.

"They could be vulnerable to some kind of USS Cole-type attacks, where someone came in a speedboat on a suicide mission," said George Baker, an oil analyst at Energia, a Houston-based oil consultancy. The 2000 suicide bombing of the U.S.Navy warship killed 17 sailors in Yemeni waters.

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It would be difficult for someone to gather the materials for a human bomb attack without being detected in Mexico. One attack would not be enough to significantly alter the oil production of Mexico. Coordinated attacks large enough to have an effect would make the possibility of earth detection even more probable.