Al Qaeda withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan

CBS News:

Intelligence agencies have been warned that al Qaeda may be planning to attack air and rail travel in Europe in actions that may occur during the busy holiday travel season, CBS News has learned exclusively.

In separate interviews with Arab and other intelligence sources, CBS News has been told that the warnings come from interrogations of al Qaeda suspects who recently left Afghanistan and Pakistan.

"One suspect said plans for repeating the Heathrow attempt (a reference to the failed 'liquid bomb' plot interrupted in August) were all prepared. It is now a matter of taking action," said one Arab official who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the media. "Al Qaeda's strategy appears to be raising the pressure in Europe."

In a move that has been puzzling intelligence agencies, al Qaeda has been withdrawing well-trained Arab fighters from the mountains and battlefields of Afghanistan.

In detailed interviews with Arab diplomats, intelligence sources and Pakistani and western officials, Arab members have been leaving Afghanistan for the past six months while handing over its militant activities in Afghanistan to that country's resurgent Taliban movement.

The new information helps to shed fresh light on a key mystery at the heart of al Qaeda's decision, first reported by CBS News in September, to withdraw its Arab members, fighters and logisticians from Afghanistan.

Rohan Gunaratna, head of terrorism research at Singapore's Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies, and the author of "Inside Al Qaeda; Global Network of Terror," said "We have seen that several hundred, perhaps five to six hundred al Qaeda members who were located on the Afghan-Pakistan border, have now left."

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"Now, maybe there are a couple of hundred people left in Afghanistan, maybe a bit more or a bit less," said one unnamed Arab diplomat, who says it was "impossible to tell the numbers accurately. But there's enough information to say that al Qaeda's Arab component in Afghanistan is very scaled down."

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A senior Arab diplomat said intelligence officers in his country thoroughly interrogated a group of men in their 20s and 30s who were caught earlier this summer after they returned from Afghanistan.

"The standard answer was: We don't know why we were told to leave. The orders were very specific — leave Afghanistan now without wasting much time." The diplomat spoke on the condition that neither his identity nor that of his country would be revealed.

Intelligence analysts and security sources say one reason why al Qaeda might feel confident in leaving the battlefield in Afghanistan largely in the hands of the Afghan Taliban is that the Taliban have shown new skill and ferocity in fighting U.S. and coalition forces.

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If an "intelligence analyst" came to that position he clearly has not been paying attention. The Taliban have been getting their but kicked where ever they have been found and they have not been smart enough to retreat from the battlefield when they come under attack. The have run some of the most inept ambushes in recent history where the ambushers have been wiped out. This suggest that the main reason al Qaeda is withdrawing its troops is because the units they have been in are being defeated.