Taliban think Canadians are weak link in NATO operation

Bill Roggio:

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A segment of the violence can be attributed to Coalition and Afghan Army's push into previously uncharted territories within Kandahar, Urguzan, Kunar and Helmand Provinces. The Coalition and Afghan forces are now making contact with the enemy. The Taliban are attempting to fracture the Coalition, and believe they can run up the body count and force the Canadians to withdraw. "We think that when we kill enough Canadians, they will quit war and return home," said Taliban spokesman Qari Yuosaf Ahmedi. The narcotics trade is also a major source of conflict, as Robert Charles noted last January. The drug lords are finding common cause with the Taliban as the Coalition and Afghan government seek to eradicate the poppy crops.

But the increased violence and regeneration of the Taliban in Afghanistan cannot be viewed as a strictly Afghan problem. The Taliban is reconstituting in Pakistan's lawless North West Frontier Province. The Taliban have been massing in large formations and have essentially taken control of the North and South Waziristan agencies, while consolidating power in the Tank, Khyber and Peshawar agencies. The Pakistani Army is essentially confined to the two garrisons in Miranshah (North Waziristan) and Wana (South Waziristan). The Taliban has openly declared Shariah law in North and South Waziristan and usurped power from the local tribes. Two tribesmen have been beheaded, Zarqawi-style, for "working as US spies."

The Pakistani Army has been conducting air strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban camps, and has claimed the Taliban and al-Qaeda have taken heavy casualties. While these accounts are likely true, Pakistan has gone to great lengths to hide their own casualties. Pakistan's Daily Times indicates "Taliban forces have so far killed 150 pro-government tribal Maliks in the North and South Waziristan Agencies and are openly challenging the writ of the government by engaging a number of security forces’ personnel in the area." A source supposedly privy to a high level Cabinet meeting also indicates "the ‘Talibnisation’ of Waziristan was damaging other parts of the NWFP and that the local ‘Maliks’ and political administration had been limited to their houses and offices..."

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One potential postive in the Taliban takeover of northern Pakistan is that the Paks will be ready for the US and NATO to come in and help clear them out and possibly find Osama in the process. If Pakistan cannot get that situation under control in a matter of months it may be time to press the matter.