The backlash against Chavez

A.M. Mora y Leon:

This week, two amazing developments have begun to shift the electoral landscape in two Latin American countries in a conservative direction. We may have Hugo Chavez, the Castro-loving, petro-dollar fuelled president of Venezuela to thank for the just-emerging turn away from the left

In Peru, and in Mexico, both of which are in the midst of hotly contested presidential campaigns, conservative candidates are starting to go for the jugular against their leftist opponents by linking them to Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. It’s driving them both to leading positions in the polls and may win them their elections.

Felipe Calderon of the PAN party in Mexico has run TV ads comparing the raging, invective-laced speeches of leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, to those of Hugo Chavez, who hurled abuse at Mexico’s president last November, as we noted yesterday. Since then, Calderon has risen to first place in one poll and to a close second place in a second poll, both of which amount to statistical ties ahead of the July 2 vote. Prior to that, the race had been written off as a giveaway victory for the Mexican leftist candidate.

The introduction of the Chavez factor has created a real horse race in Mexico that can go in any direction.

Peru is seeming to follow the same pattern. Lourdes Flores, a promising free-market candidate in Peru’s presdiential race, has taken off the lace gloves and really given it to Chavez, identifying him a lurking “danger in the shadows“ for all of Latin America. Not only does she believe it, she is betting that this statement of the obvious will raise her position in polls, same as it did for Calderon.

Apparently, it’s working. Agencia EFE has just announced that Flores has retaken in the lead in Peru’s election polls. For Flores, this is a change of tactics, and not a moment too soon. In the past, candidates like Flores tended to demur about Chavez, even when he attacked them, saying that they preferred to focus on domestic issues. In Flores, Chavez had correctly read that approach as a sign of weakness and made atrocious attacks with sexual inneundo against Flores, who then tried to maintain a distant dignity in the face of that Chavez tirade. It didn’t win her any votes.

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It should work in the US too.