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Tal Afar operation not over

Bill Rogio:

Reports of the end of the Tal Afar offensive are greatly exaggerated. Reuters states an Iraqi brigade has launched a new operation in the city, “killing 40 insurgents and arresting 21 "terrorist emirs," or senior insurgent leaders.” The Kuwait News Agency reports that eighty percent of the city is now under Coalition control, so there is still some heavy lifting to be done. The city was deemed safe enough that Iraqi Prime Minister Jaafari arrived to inspect the operations.

Initial estimates of the strength of the insurgency were around 350 to 500 fighters total. The best guestimate available on enemy casualties is now around 200 killed and 220 captured. Many of Sunday’s news accounts intimated the majority of the terrorists fled the city, but the high number of killed/captured in Tal Afar shows this is not the case. The Coalition estimate of insurgency strength may have been low, but the enemy has certainly taken a beating in Tal Afar.

Denying sanctuary is an important aspect of defeating a raiding strategy like the enemy is using in Iraq. In a report on Fox News this evening the tunnels found in Tal Afar are described as leading out side the city. This would mean tht they would have to extend beyone the berm errected around the city by US and Iragi forces. Roggio's math suggest that few if any enemy escaped.