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Operation Cyclone

Bill Roggio:

With simultaneous offensives occurring in Qaim, Tal Afar, and Rabiah, Coalition forces launch Operation Cyclone in the southern town of Rutbah, which sits astride roads at the southern-most border crossing with Syria and the northern-most border crossing with Jordan. Cyclone is a cordon and search, there is no word on the composition of the force or whether Coalition forces intend to fully occupy the town at this time, as is being done in Tal Afar.

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The border closing in Rabiah, the assault on Tal Afar, the systematic airstikes in Qaim and the operation in Rutbah show the Coalition is methodically targeting the main points of entry of the insurgency and al Qaeda. A recently discovered ratline manual from a known al Qaeda facilitator stated these three entry points were the main areas of crossing, with the crossing at Qaim being the preferred point of entry due to tribal advantages, terrain and other considerations.

The Coalition may be focusing efforts in Tal Afar to the north and Rutbah to the south because these crossings are easier to secure. The effect of this will be the funneling of terrorists and material to the Qaim region, increasing the likelihood of more violent clashes along the Euphrates ratline. The Coalition is compensating for this by taking advantage of new-gained intelligence in the area to conduct precision raids to kill al Qaeda en masse.

There is also a dog that is not barking. The human bomb attacks have declined into insignificants since the take down of al Qaeda's man in Mosul directing the operation, as well as the dismantling of his network in Saudi Arabia. The information from a detainee that unraveled this portion of al Qaeda's war in Iraq is probably the key piece of intelligence at this stage of the war. As Roggio also points out the US is getting more intelligence on the al Qaeda ratlines as more Sunnis turn on the death cult. Al Qaeda has lost the battle for the hearts and minds of the Iraqis, including the Sunnis. Right now their largest group of supporters are the antiwar left who desperately want the US to be defeated in Iraq.