Amir Taheri:
INCREDIBLE though it may sound, there are signs that Tehran may be preparing for a military confrontation with the United States — and has convinced itself that it can win.He lays out their plan for victory.The first sign came last June, with the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of the Islamic Republic, an event that completed the conquest of all levers of power by the most radical elements of the establishment.
Since then, the revolutionary factions have conducted a little-publicized purge of the military, the security apparatus, the civil service and state-owned corporations and media.
Among those replaced: the defense minister, the commander-in-chief of the regular army and his four deputies, 11 senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and five commanders of the paramilitary Mobilization of the Dispossessed — plus the intelligence and security minister and the interior minister (who controls the police and the gendarmerie). Also noteworthy is the appointment of military officers to posts normally held by civilians, such as governors, mayors and directors of major public corporations.
But perhaps the surest sign is the military buildup under way in the five provinces bordering Iraq. The region, with a population of 20 million, has been put under the control of the IRGC, which has also taken over units of the regular army (including the 88th Division) and the border police. Iran is estimated to have 250,000 troops in the area, its biggest military buildup since the 1988 end of the Iran-Iraq war.
One of the first acts of the new Ahmadinejad-led Cabinet was to approve a $700 million "emergency" fund to be spent at the discretion of "Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for "sacred defense purposes."
The new administration is also speeding up defense spending. The five-year plan approved by Khamenei last year aimed at doubling the military budget by 2010 — but, thanks to rising oil revenues, most of it could now be done by 2008.
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