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Continued attrition of al Qaeda leadership on Mosul taking its toll

Bill Roggio:

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Today, Multinational Forces-Iraq stated that three more senior al Qaeda commanders in the Mosul region have been detained, based on intelligence from local Iraqi citizens. Captured were Abu Muhammad, “a terrorist battalion commander for Al-Qaeda in Iraq in Mosul”; Abu Shayma, “a cell leader under Abu Muhammad”; and Abu Abd al Karim. Karim was the driver for the recently killed Abu Zayd, the former Emir of al Qaeda in Mosul, who succeeded Abu Talha (the commander of Ansar al-Islam prior to its official merger with al Qaeda), after he was captured by the Coalition. The succession is dizzying.

Another interesting fact about Karim is that he was elevated from Zayd’s driver to a terrorist cell leader in Mosul. This highlights the continuous vacuum that needs to be filled due to the relentless assault on al Qaeda’s network up north. Promotions occur at a furious pace; drivers to promoted cell leaders, cell leaders to battalion leaders, battalion leaders to Emirs. Inexperience quickly moves up the ranks, degrading the network's effectiveness. (Emphasis added.)

There is no better way to dismantle a terrorist organization than by striking at the middle managers. The Coalition is quite effective at this in the north. It has been effective because of tips from local Iraqis, the continuous presence of the Coalition and the application of this intelligence onto successful operations designed to kill or capture the most deadly leaders of the local networks.

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The attrition is also seen in al Qaeda's inability to strike defended targets and its targeting of non combatants. The math of this strategy is working against them at anaccelerated pace. The downward spiral of al Qaeda in Iraq shows continued attrition of its forces and accelerated alienation of Iraqi civilians. They can only win this war in the minds of the antiwar left.