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Al Qaeda's reach

Strategy Page:

The appearance, last week, of a videotape featuring one of the British born, Islamic suicide bombers who struck in London on July 7, and the al Qaeda mastermind Ayman al Zawahiri, made it clear that there was an al Qaeda connection to this attack. The tape was made when one of the British bombers was recently in Pakistan, where his parents were born, and where many British born Moslems get interested in Islamic radicalism. The terrorist recruits tend to keep their new interests from their parents. The kids know their parents oppose Islamic terrorism. But, as with terrorists from earlier generations, the young can easily be made slaves of fashion. What is remarkable about the tape, first shown by satellite news network al Jazeera last week, is how it confirmed al Qaeda participation in the planning and execution of the July 7th London terror attacks. Previously, it had been believed that the July 7 terrorists were local lads who were simply inspired by al Qaeda activities.

Based on the number and frequency of terrorist attacks, al Qaeda is not a particularly effective organization....

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What scares counter-terrorist experts is what secret al Qaeda operations are under way. The big fear is that al Qaeda has obtained nuclear or chemical weapons, and is working on how to deliver them to Western targets. But all the available evidence is that the senior al Qaeda leaders spend most of their time avoiding capture, and much of the remainder creating media events, in the form of audio and video recordings, to inspire the troops. It's embarrassing, for the major intelligence agencies of the West, to be unable to find, and destroy, the surviving parts of al Qaeda. But, at the same time, all indications are that al Qaeda is more surviving than thriving. It exists more of an idea and hot media story. When a terrorist organization gets to the point where most of its activity is devoted to avoiding capture, and creating press releases, it's lethality is much diminished.

If it had the WMD it would be using it. It is an organization without inhibitions and for which deterence is not an issue. It is important to keep them in their cave until they are captured. We will know in very short order when this organization gets any WMD, becuase they will use it without delay. They are losing and desperate and looking for majic bullets. They are looking at Hurricaine Katrina with envy.